Thursday, August 15, 2019

Inversion...

Image result for bond curve inversion cartoon

Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the markets may be wrong this time in trusting the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator.
"Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and I think that's when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal," Yellen said on. "The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields."
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623% on Wednesday, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%, causing the bond market's main yield curve to invert and send markets plummeting.

The bond market phenomenon is historically a trusty signal of an eventual recession; however, Yellen said this time may be different.

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