Dire Outlook...

JPMorgan's views of the virus "have evolved dramatically in recent weeks" as the outbreak has spread further, the bank's economists wrote.

The US economy could shrink by 2% in the first quarter and 3% in the second, JPMorgan projected, while the eurozone economy could contract by 1.8% and 3.3% in the same periods.

Technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross-domestic-product growth. The bank's emerging-markets economists haven't updated their growth estimates, but "evolving news on the virus and the material tightening" in those markets' financial conditions make it "reasonable to expect further downward revisions" in global first-half GDP.

The outbreak was initially deemed a short-lived but disruptive shock to world economies, but two key developments led the bank to brace for a "much sharper" contraction in the first half of the year and a "novel-global recession."

The economists first cited the "sudden stop" to economic activity created by quarantines and social-distancing measures around the world.

The cancellations of major sporting, cultural, and business events will further cut into consumer spending, and the uncertainty surrounding the virus will make a coordinated economic restart even more difficult, the economists said.

Financial markets' wild price swings and tumbling asset prices will also contribute to economic contraction over the next two quarters, according to JPMorgan. Financial conditions around the globe are "tightening sharply as perceptions of credit quality" across several assets deteriorate, the economists said. The risk of sovereign and corporate debt crises adds to the firm's already dire economic outlook.

Join...

Hours after declaring a national emergency because of the coronavirus, President Trump suggested the nation look to God for "protection and strength."

On Friday evening, Trump declared Sunday a National Day of Prayer and pointed out how the public has historically found solace in faith during times of crisis. The first Sunday of every March since 1988 has been designated a National Day of Prayer in the United States, but Trump personalized this year's day of prayer to address the outbreak of COVID-19.

“It is my great honor to declare Sunday, March 15th as a National Day of Prayer,” Trump wrote.

I..M...

We tried.

Whadda Ya...

The Covid-19 Virus Saga will create more unexpected winners and loosers, similar to the surprise   Democratic front runner for the nomination of the party.  Just a thought.

Wait...

During his Friday show, Lou Dobbs showed off a printed out chart autographed by President Donald Trump of Friday’s 1,985-point Dow Jones average rise…one day after the same financial index dropped a record 2,352 points.

Recapping the day’s major financial market moves, the Fox Business host touted the $2 trillion bounce-back, which managed to make up 84 percent of losses from Thursday’s nosedive, which was the largest single-day drop since 1987’s “Black Monday.” The financial markets firmly remain in bear territory, however, having fallen nearly 22 percent off their recent highs.

For all who are irritated by this, wait for Monday.  Just a thought.

Swan...

A black swan in markets is an event that has not occurred in the past, thus rendering useless risk management models based on historic data. Such a risk model would assume that all swans were white.

“First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility,” author Nassim Taleb wrote in his book "The Black Swan."

“Second, it carries an extreme impact.

Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

In the case of the coronavirus, no one predicted a disease would cause more than 60 million people in China to be locked down during the Lunar New Year, the country’s busiest travel period, paralyzing the Chinese economy.

Horizon...

If the bear market that began in mid-February 2020 is average, the market will trade at a new all-time high in February 2023.

Whether you see this as good or bad news depends on your investment horizon. The prospect of three years without new highs will be disappointing if you’re a short-term trader who has been spoiled rotten in recent years by bull-market records being regularly broken.   

How long will it take for the market to recover from its bear-market losses and make it back to where it stood at its Feb. 19, 2020 high?

To find out what light history can shed on this question. Looking at the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, there have been 36 bear markets since 1900. In each case, measuring how long it took for the S&P 500 to subsequently claw its way back to where it stood when the bear market began.

The average across all 36 bear markets was just over three years. SO be prepared.

Epic-Center...

Europe has now become the epicentre of the pandemic," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a virtual press conference on Friday.

"More cases are now being reported every day than were reported in China at the height of its epidemic."     

The virus, which first surfaced in China in December, has now killed more than 5,000 people, "a tragic milestone", according to Tedros. 

 The comments came as countries across the world tried to limit the infection's spread, tightening borders, closing schools and cancelling events.

Tedros said such measures could help, but stressed that countries needed to take "a comprehensive approach.

"Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all," he said.

Aggressive...

Canada has unveiled aggressive new measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak, shutting down parliament and advising against foreign travel, even as Justin Trudeau urged citizens to remain calm in a national address delivered from self-imposed quarantine.

“We have an outstanding public health authorities who are doing an outstanding job. We will get through this together,” said the prime minister, who has been in self-isolation after his wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau tested positive for Covid-19.

Officials announced a raft of new measures including closing parliament for five weeks and redirecting incoming international flights to a small number of airports as part of enhanced screening measures. The government also announced it will ban cruise ships with 500 people from docking in the country’s ports until 1 July – but stopped short of closing the borders.

Instead, the government has asked Canadians to avoid non-essential travel outside the country and to limit contact with crowds.

Sadness...