If the bear market that began in mid-February 2020 is average, the market will trade at a new all-time high in February 2023.
Whether you see this as good or bad news depends on your investment horizon. The prospect of three years without new highs will be disappointing if you’re a short-term trader who has been spoiled rotten in recent years by bull-market records being regularly broken.
How long will it take for the market to recover from its bear-market losses and make it back to where it stood at its Feb. 19, 2020 high?
To find out what light history can shed on this question. Looking at the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, there have been 36 bear markets since 1900. In each case, measuring how long it took for the S&P 500 to subsequently claw its way back to where it stood when the bear market began.
How long will it take for the market to recover from its bear-market losses and make it back to where it stood at its Feb. 19, 2020 high?
To find out what light history can shed on this question. Looking at the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, there have been 36 bear markets since 1900. In each case, measuring how long it took for the S&P 500 to subsequently claw its way back to where it stood when the bear market began.
The average across all 36 bear markets was just over three years. SO be prepared.
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