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Escalating sanctions by the West to punish Russia for its war against Ukraine are driving fears that an episode of increased inflation, already at its highest levels in 40 years, will become harder to wring out of the U.S. economy without a recession.

Before Moscow’s invasion three weeks ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had begun laying the groundwork for a more aggressive series of rate increases, driven by concerns that labor markets were overheating. He and his colleagues were also banking on getting an assist from recovering supply chains later this year, limiting how far rates would have to rise.

Economists say there’s a growing risk that Mr. Powell could feel great pressure to lift rates to levels that ultimately tip the economy into recession. “It’s a very difficult path for the Fed to guide inflation back to target without triggering a downturn, and the path got even narrower with this latest supply-side shock we’re seeing,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

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