Permanent neutrality is a very European solution to a very European problem: mutual geopolitical threats. Switzerland was neutralised by the Great Powers in 1815 to keep Austria and France apart, Belgium and Luxembourg were neutralised later to put space between France and Germany, and Austria was neutralised in 1955 to regain its independence without becoming another NATO member that could threaten the USSR.
This worked because neutral buffer states deescalate the security dilemma. Permanently neutral states, even when they have militaries – which almost all do – pose no structural threats to great powers, while nuclear weapons or alliances like NATO do.
That is why Moscow, too, has been calling for a neutral Ukraine, and not just since the war started. Rank and file Russian foreign policymakers have suggested it on the highest levels, together with a federalisation of the state as foreseen in the Minsk II agreements.
Since December 17 2021, when Russia published two draft treaties, it has been clear that Moscow would agree to a neutral status for Ukraine. The treaties all but name the policy. Even if one rejects the demands of NATO’s withdrawal to 1997 borders (also a part of the proposal) the neutrality of Ukraine still comprises the core part.
This worked because neutral buffer states deescalate the security dilemma. Permanently neutral states, even when they have militaries – which almost all do – pose no structural threats to great powers, while nuclear weapons or alliances like NATO do.
That is why Moscow, too, has been calling for a neutral Ukraine, and not just since the war started. Rank and file Russian foreign policymakers have suggested it on the highest levels, together with a federalisation of the state as foreseen in the Minsk II agreements.
Since December 17 2021, when Russia published two draft treaties, it has been clear that Moscow would agree to a neutral status for Ukraine. The treaties all but name the policy. Even if one rejects the demands of NATO’s withdrawal to 1997 borders (also a part of the proposal) the neutrality of Ukraine still comprises the core part.
Just a "Simple" thought.
No comments:
Post a Comment