Brewing..

 

Concern over inflation in Europe has been brewing even before Russia invaded Ukraine in February. While some argued it was transitory, others warned that it was a sign of a deeper crisis. Now, half a year since the start of the war in Ukraine, a new debate is gripping Europe: is a recession inevitable?

Every passing day seems to foreshadow a downturn. After Moscow decided to temporarily suspend its gas supply to Germany, gas prices surged to €295 per Megawatt-Hour. 

Business activity in Germany and France contracted in August due to falling demand and rising prices. The euro hit a new 20-year low against the dollar, making it more expensive to purchase energy on international markets, which is paid with the greenback. 

The Germany’s central bank, Bundesbank, forecast that inflation, which stands at 7.5%, will hit double digits in fall. And the severe drought sweeping Europe has led to a decline in hydroelectric production when it is needed most. The drought has also led to record-low water levels in rivers such as the Rhine, where some vessels cannot pass, a problem that is causing major disruptions to water freight.

Just a thought.

Assistance..

 

Taken together, congressional authorizations of military and nonmilitary aid to Ukraine are now around $50 billion. 

For some perspective, consider these figures: Among top recipients of U.S. military assistance in 2020, Israel received $3.3 billion, Afghanistan $2.8 billion and Egypt $1.3 billion. The totality of U.S. military aid spread across 157 nations amounted to $11.6 billion. 

The Ukraine military outlay for 2022 is now more than three-fourths of that figure — and there are still more than four months left in 2022. There are almost certainly more shipments of weapons to come.

Millions of refugees fled the war..

Are we helping the Ukraine?  Just a thought.

Buckle up..

 

 After a week hosting the International Monetary Fund’s annual gathering of economic leaders, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva summed it up for the 190 member countries: “Buckle up, and keep going.”

As the talks ended in Washington on Saturday, finance ministers and central bankers seeking to sustain the world economy’s shaky recovery from the pandemic worried Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Sanctions back and forth, continue to destabilize Europe and stymies efforts to boost growth.

Just a thought.

Adjusted..

 

Cain..

 

 Ukraine’s tangled political history with Russia has its counterpart in the religious landscape, with Ukraine’s majority Orthodox Christian population divided between an independent-minded group based in Kyiv and another loyal to its patriarch in Moscow.

On the other side of religion:  Cain, a farmer, became enraged when the Lord accepted the offering of his brother, a shepherd, in preference to his own. He murdered Abel and was banished by the Lord from the settled country. Cain feared that in his exile he could be killed by anyone, so the Lord gave him a sign for his protection and a promise that if he were killed, he would be avenged sevenfold.

A brother is killing a brother?

Crises..

 

The global economy continues to be weakened by the Russia/Ukraine war through significant disruptions in trade, food and fuel price shocks.  All of which are contributing to high inflation and subsequent tightening in global financing conditions by central banks around the World.

Inflation reached or exceeded 9% in US and Europe, and to curb this disaster, recession started to become an expectation. It is not if, but when.

The disrupted trade in food and energy will bring the world economy to its knees. Russia is the world's third-biggest petroleum producer and a leading exporter of natural gas, fertilizer and wheat. Farms in Ukraine feed millions globally. The resulting inflation has rippled out to the world.

But with that, the sanctions on Russia and the Russian sanctions on EU and US. is dragging the various economies into recession which this time will be worse than 2008.

One wonder, why? Just a thought.

Loss...

 

 Federal Reserve's fight to squash inflation will cause the US economy to start losing tens of thousands of jobs a month beginning early next year, Bank of America warns.

Although the jobs market remained surprisingly strong in September, the Fed is working hard to change that by aggressively raising interest rates to ease demand for everything from cars and homes to appliances.

The pace of job growth is expected to be roughly cut in half during the fourth quarter of this year, Bank of America told clients in a report Friday.

As pressure from the Fed's war on inflation builds, nonfarm payrolls will begin shrinking early next year, translating to a loss of about 175,000 jobs a month during the first quarter, the bank said. Charts published by Bank of America suggest job losses will continue through much of 2023.

History..

 

In 2015, the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras repeatedly said that Greece would seek to mend ties between Russia and EU through European institutions, also said Greece was not in Favour of Western sanctions imposed on Russia, it risked the start of another Cold War.^[167]

A number of business figures in France and Germany have opposed the sanctions. The German economy minister Sigmar Gabriel said that the Ukrainian crisis should be resolved by dialogue rather than economic confrontation,^] later adding that the reinforcement of anti-Russian sanctions will "provoke an even more dangerous situation... in Europe".

Paolo Gentiloni, the Italian minister of foreign affairs, said that the sanctions "are not the solution to the conflict".^[1In January 2017, Swiss economics minister and former president of Switzerland Johann Schneider-Ammann stated his concern about the sanctions' harm to the Swiss economy.

Fed..

  

Federal Reserve officials signaled they are more concerned about doing too little to rein in soaring US inflation than doing too much and doubled down on plans to tighten monetary policy, so it constrains the economy, according to an account of their latest meeting. 

 Minutes from the September meeting at which the Fed implemented its third-consecutive 0.75 %-point rate rise underscored the high bar for the central bank to back off in its historically aggressive campaign to bring prices under control.

 According to the account, central bankers remain committed to “purposefully” tightening monetary policy in the face of “broad-based and unacceptably high inflation.”

So, Money has to come out of your pocket, one way or another.  

Just a thought.

CPI..

 

Consumer prices in the US rose more than expected last month in a sign that the inflation fight in the world's largest economy is far from over.

Inflation, the rate at which prices rise, was 8.2% in the 12 months to September, down from 8.3% in August.

Despite the fall, the figure was still higher than forecast.

Inflation in the US is being closely watched as the US central bank's efforts to tame the problem push up the dollar and global borrowing costs.

On the other hand, the White House Administration just continue it's failed sanctions on Russia which is causing food shortage and tripled the cost of Natural Gas, leading many European countries into recession.