Mistaken

Sometimes we forget how quickly radical change in politics can occur.

Sweden and the Netherlands, were liberal, the UK because of its strong political institutions and civic culture, and Germany, of the stigma left by the second world war.

But fast forward only 20 years, and each of those countries has now experienced a major populist rebellion. Pim Fortuyn and then Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. The Sweden Democrats, who recently reached a new record share of the vote. 

For Germany, which has more than 90 seats in the Bundestag and seats in 15 of Germany’s 16 state parliaments. And in the UK, Nigel Farage and the UK Independence party forced a referendum on Britain’s EU membership which voted for Brexit. 

Another misconception is that the likes of Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen or Matteo Salvini are driven by economic scarcity, competition over wages or jobs, and by the effects of the post-2008 financial crisis and austerity.

A third is the mistaken belief that all these movements are a reflection of lingering racism in society, and perhaps even latent public support for fascism. Others argue, again wrongly, that voters are being ruthlessly manipulated into voting for the populists by dark and shadowy right-wingers who control the media or big tech.

The current wave of national populism actually began decades ago a “backlash” to the 60s liberal revolution.  

Even in Britain we conveniently ignore the fact that Farage and his self-anointed People’s Army first enjoyed major success at the 2004 European parliament elections, after 48 consecutive periods of economic growth, and drew much of their early support from affluent conservatives.

The tendency to dismiss these movements as a political home for old, white racist men ignores the fact that Le Pen picked up much of her support not only from young men but young women in France, while in Austria, Germany, Italy and Sweden, national populists are strongest among the under-40s or draw their support fairly evenly from across age groups. And, when it comes to racism, studies have shown that this is falling, not rising.