Balance...

As the U.S. battles to limit the spread of the contagious new coronavirus, the number of health care workers ordered to self-quarantine because of potential exposure to an infected patient is rising at a rapid pace. In Vacaville, Calif., alone, one case,  the first documented instance of community transmission in the U.S. ,left more than 200 hospital workers under quarantine and unable to work for weeks.

With the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases growing by the day, a continued quarantine response of this magnitude would quickly leave the health care system short-staffed and overwhelmed. The situation has prompted debate in the health care community about just what standards medical facilities should use before ordering workers quarantined  and what safety protocols need to become commonplace in clinics and emergency rooms.

Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

The correct response comes down to a careful balance of the evolving science with the need to maintain a functioning health care system.

While hospitals are supposed to be prepared for just such a situation, Nuzzo says, their plans often fall short. "Absent any imminent public health crisis, it may not be one of their priorities," she says.  

Outbreak...

A coronavirus is an invisible threat, and it is making vivid the shortcomings of our health care systems.

The world is a “a playground” for viruses like the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, infectious disease experts wrote last week in the New England Journal of Medicine. “We must realize that in our crowded world of 7.8 billion people, a combination of altered human behaviors, environmental changes, and inadequate global public health mechanisms now easily turn obscure animal viruses into existential human threats.”  

There is still a chance that the outbreak, which has now spread to six continents, will stall out. China’s willingness to impose draconian, unprecedented quarantines has bought everyone time.

But the outbreak should be a wake-up call one ignored with the less widespread outbreak of SARS in 2003 and the not-so-deadly flu pandemic of 2009 — about infectious threats that we face together and that exploit vulnerabilities associated with income inequality, health disparities, and our slowness to recognize threats.

Since the healthcare system can't absorb/treat a sizable sickness related to Covid, then the only alternative is to  shut down whatever we can. That itself will impact the  economics badly.   Just a thought. 

Sophie...

Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, wife of Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, has tested positive for coronavirus after returning from a trip to London, a statement from the PM's office says.

"She will remain in isolation for the time being. She is feeling well, is taking all the recommended precautions and her symptoms remain mild," it read.

The couple is now self-isolating.

Mr Trudeau is in good health and has no symptoms, according to his office, but will remain in isolation for 14 days.

There are no plans at present for Mr Trudeau to be tested for coronavirus.

"The prime minister will continue to fully assume his duties and will address Canadians]," his office said.

Cheering...

Many economists have tried to model the economic consequences of a pandemic. The CBO did a study in 2005 and 2006, modeling the impact of a 1918-sized flu pandemic on the economy. They found that a pandemic “could produce a short-run impact on the worldwide economy similar in depth and duration to that of an average postwar recession in the United States.” Specifically, a severe pandemic could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by about 4.5%, followed by a sharp rebound.

The CBO assumed, there would be demand-side effects, with an 80% decline in the arts and entertainment industries and a 67% decline in transportation. Retail and manufacturing would drop 10%.  The U.S. wasn’t prepared for a flu pandemic then, the CBO said, and it isn’t now.

“If a pandemic were to occur in the near term, the options for the United States would be limited to attempts to control the spread of the virus and judicious use of limited medical facilities, personnel, and supplies,” the bipartisan agency concluded. “In the longer term, more tools are potentially available, including an increased treatment capacity, greater use of vaccines and antiviral drug stockpiles, and possible advances in medical technology.”

Other simulations of the U.S. and non-U.S. economies have found similar economic impacts, although that research came at an earlier stage of globalization, when our economy was not quite so reliant on far-flung supply chains.  Just a thought.

Quarantines...

Much of the immediate economic impact of a pandemic can be traced to the efforts to contain it, rather than from the effects of the disease itself. As we attempt to quarantine those who might spread the disease, we shut down a lot of economic activity.

The quarantines might be the only way to slow the spread of COVID-19, but they could also hamper our response. Our health-care system also relies on vital inputs for medicines, supplies and equipment produced all over the world, including China and other hard-hit Asian economies. And of course we rely on the free flow of thousands of other goods and services.

The potential for disaster is sobering. The economies of the world are extraordinarily resilient, yet extraordinarily dependent upon each other in a crisis. Sadly, the things we need most to get us through this — wise leadership, global cooperation and clear thinking — are harder to find than a surgical mask.

Message...

You Care...

Sanitizer...

Don't let a disaster go to waste. Just a thought.

No Hug...

Keep your distance. And don't kiss.

Those are two pieces of advice that could be crucial in reducing the spread of the coronavirus.
Public health officials say the spread has been mainly driven through people spending time indoors with others who have the disease.

"Looks like the main driver is not widespread community infection — looks like it's household-level infection," Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior adviser to the World Health Organization, said.

Indeed, data from China's cases show that most of the spread is happening among family members who live together.

Perhaps the reason that the virus spreads among family members is the way people become infected. "The main mode of transmission is respiratory droplets" that can be produced by speaking and coughing, says Dr. Adam Lauring, associate professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Michigan. "These droplets then can find their way into the mouths, noses of other people nearby." 

(Sneezing, another way droplets are spread, is not a common symptom of COVID-19, indicating that it's not usually an upper respiratory infection, Aylward said.)

Threat...

Mr. Schumer was speaking before abortion-rights activists as the Supreme Court considers whether to curtail the ability of abortion providers to sue on behalf of women seeking abortions—a doctrine known as third-party standing. 

Mr. Schumer, still addressing  Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, added: “You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”

The “whirlwind”? “What hit you”?

 This is an incitement to violence against a federal agent, and surely was a threat of political reprisal against the Justices if they don’t vote the way Mr. Schumer wants.  

The remarks drew a rare and pointed public rebuke from Chief Justice John Roberts, who said: “Justices know that criticism comes with the territory, but threatening statements of this sort from the highest levels of government are not only inappropriate, they are dangerous. All Members of the Court will continue to do their job, without fear or favor, from whatever quarter.”