Outcome..

 

The primary aim of sanctions is to induce major disruption to the economy of the sanctioned country. So, the real question is whether sanctions on Russia have achieved that goal. 

The current consensus appears to be that, to date, sanctions have had, at most, a very limited impact on the Russian economy.

Critics point to the slight fall in Russian real GDP – despite predictions to the contrary a year ago, and the maintenance of oil and gas exports from Russia – as sanctions’ minimal effect. 

This raises the concern that the sanctioning nations may gradually lose the willpower to keep restrictions in place, particularly in the face of the resulting disruption to the world economy and supply chains, especially in the energy and agriculture markets.

One year on, it is useful to consider what predictions were made a year ago and the continue on the same wrong path that led to prices increases and inflation worldwide.