Expect..

 

The first week of May could have brought us a much-awaited paradigm shift, however the markets still appraise the impact of China’s COVID lockdowns amidst the mass-testing taking place in Beijing and the probability of a comprehensive European embargo on Russian oil. With no clear way out for either of those, Brent futures remained range bound, closing Tuesday around $106 per barrel.

 Whilst OPEC+ is widely expected to agree to another monthly increase of 432,000 b/d, the widening gap between the oil group’s stated objectives and reality is becoming too glaring to ignore.

- For March, the last month for which official OPEC+ data is available, the discrepancy added up to 1.45 million b/d and is set to only increase in April as Russia’s production went downhill. 

- Africa has been a source of headache of its own, with Libya’s key infrastructure blockade trimming some 550,000 b/d from global supply, whilst Nigeria and Angola continue to slide lowed amidst force majeures and terminal declines.

Add to it the EU's attempt to prevent Russia from selling its oil will impact the prices big time. Expect $200 Per Barrell real soon. Thanks to the Brandons everywhere.