Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Math...

 Political Cartoon: Joe Biden successfully shelters out of sight

The national polls after the convention tell a pretty clear story. Biden is up by around 8 points. That's what the poll shows. The average, depending on how you compute it, has basically the same thing.

The matches what we saw in the CNN/SSRS poll that had Biden up by 8 points nationally and with a 5-point difference in the aggregate of the 15 closest states in 2016. That 3-point gap is what our poll also had last month.

This 3-point spread between popular vote margin and the true margin pretty much exactly what we saw in 2016. Clinton won by 2 points nationally, while Trump took Wisconsin by 1 point and with it the electoral college.

Now, we obviously don't know what the exact difference between the popular vote and the true margin will be in 2020. But a difference almost always exists, and it's quite likely that this cycle it will favor Trump.

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